In a world where geopolitical contestation is once again defined by power, interest and survival, enduring partnerships are rare. The intensifying rivalry between the United States and China has deepened divisions across regions, compelling states to constantly recalibrate their alignments. Amid this shifting landscape, the Pakistan–China relationship has not only endured but expanded over decades.
Geopolitical and geoeconomic contests centred around self-interest have been part of the realpolitik of this world since the beginning of civilisation. Regardless of attractive expressions of pluralism, globalisation and the so-called rules-based world order that has been effectively ruptured by the US, the famous three ‘s’ of realism– ‘statism, survival and self-help’-- have and are likely to always steer interstate relations. Speedily manifesting US-China rivalry has been exacerbated by multiple wars being fought for extension of sphere of influence, control on energy, maritime choke points and critical metals. Interestingly, despite war Russian gas continues to flow through Ukraine, for which Ukraine gets royalty as well. India buys Russian crude, refines and exports it. It had also gotten a waiver to buy Russian weapons and trade with Iran. Post Ukraine conflict, the US has replaced Russia as the largest LPG and oil exporter to Europe. Post US-Israel war in the Middle East , the world may see the US emerge as the largest oil exporting country.
US and Chinese national securities strategies reveal an enormous gap in their ends, ways and means. The US lays emphasis on ‘America first’ and ‘protecting the homeland’, whereas China focuses on ‘national rejuvenation’ and the ‘Chinese dream’. ‘Economic development, political stability, and social cohesion’ remain China's priority. Meanwhile the US priority is ‘military strength, economic prosperity, and political leadership’. China emphasises on ‘non-interference’ and ‘win-win cooperation’, whereas the US underscores ‘peace through strength’ and ‘American exceptionalism’. The US National Security Strategy 2022 states, “The People’s Republic of China is the only competitor with both the intent to reshape the international order and... the economic, diplomatic, military, and technological power to do it”.
NATO also labels China as a “threat. From the US perspective, the countries that have even economic ties with China cannot be friends of the US. However, the EU and China have concluded the negotiations on the “Comprehensive Agreement on Investment” (CAI) and still have mutual trade amounting to approximately 400 billion euros.
The Chinese conduct of interstate relations is largely steered by the Confucian idea of peaceful coexistence. Following the same spirit, President Xi proffered the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Global Development Initiative (GDI), Global Security Initiative (GSI) and Global Civilisational Initiative (GCI). China asserts that all these initiatives are for the collective good to help integrate the world through intertwined destinies that could beget a well-knit international community engendering enduring peace. The critics, however, interpret these very differently. They perceive China as a revisionist state attempting to challenge the prevalent world order dominated and steered by the US.
The US apprehensions perhaps stem from the historical fact that hegemonic world powers have an approximate life span of 90-100 years. Graham Allison, in his book Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’ Trap?, had cited analyses of 16 such cases from the past 500 years. Out of these, 14 transitions took place after bloody conflicts, he wrote. The Chinese track record is quite different. Despite being a great maritime power of the 15th century, it never invaded, annexed or colonised any country. During the years 1405-1433, Chinese Admiral Zheng He undertook seven voyages in the Indo-Pacific region. His fleet comprised hundreds of ships and thousands of sailors. But these voyages were only aimed at establishing cultural and trade ties. The next Chinese emperor ordered dismantling of the fleet: presumably to preclude development of an offensive capability that could be seen as a threat by other countries.
Avoiding military confrontation, China is gradually becoming assertive. It has increased defence expenditure, from US$ 65 billion to US$ 178 billion in a decade with added focus on modernisation of its blue water Navy and building new naval bases abroad. The Economist, in its cover story of June 15, 2024, termed China “the scientific superpower”, concluding that the “old science world order, dominated by America, Europe and Japan, is coming to an end”. It may become a super power in the next 25-30 years, and may flex military muscles but its history and culture exclude such possibility. One hopes that the upcoming summit meeting at Beijing, the US and China can develop some understanding to avoid a military confrontation, and co-exist.
Regardless of the pressures and challenges of prevalent dynamic and volatile international power politics, the Pakistan-China bond spanning geo-economics and geo-strategic landscape has persevered and flourished over the past 75 years. Both states, their people and leaderships support each other persistently and unequivocally. China has proven to be a friend indeed. It supports Pakistan in its quest for attainment of comprehensive security. Chinese support during Pakistan’s successful counteroffensive against India in May 2025 is an evident manifestation of this fact. The mediatory role being played by Pakistan in the US-Israel-Iran war that could have escalated dangerously couldn’t have been possible without Chinese support.
The Chinese miracle of quickest rise as economic, technological, military power and highest financial and moral contributor to world growth is unprecedented in world history. This all did not happen automatically. It is the fruition of well thought-out planning and reforms introduced by Deng Xiaoping in 1978, encompassing opening up to the world and capitalising on the opportunities presented post US-China rapprochement facilitated by Pakistan in 1971. According to the IMF, China’s economy– currently second largest– is poised to overtake the US by 2030. The success gained by China in poverty alleviation is enviable. China had 87.5% of its people below the poverty line in the 1950s. Today, the number is almost zero. The World Bank 2022 report stated, “ Over 40 years, the number of people in China with income below $1.90, has fallen close to 800 million accounting for three quarters of global poverty reduction…The number of poor people in China fell by 770 million. By any measure, the speed and scale of poverty reduction is historically unprecedented.”
This unparalleled economic rise is woven around its philosophy of win-win cooperation. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) , an exhibition of this philosophy, is steered by reciprocity and rewarding cooperation. BRI thrives across the contents with partnerships of approximately 150 countries. The China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), one of its six corridors, had been termed as a game-changer from the viewpoint of its comprehensive socio-economic dividends. It envisaged development of infrastructure, power generation, industrialisation and socioeconomic development for societal emancipation of Pakistan. Designed as a win-win project, it pledged investment of about 62 billion US dollars in three phases; “The short-term phase (2015-2022), the medium-term phase (2021-2025), and the long-term phase (2026-2030). Phase 2 of the CPEC was expanded to include five sub-corridors; ‘growth corridor, economic development projects corridor, innovation corridor, green corridor, and regional connectivity corridor’ as well as the five Es framework, i.e., ‘xports, E-Pakistan, environment, energy and, equity and empowerment. Mineral, oil and gas and offshore exploration, enhanced technological cooperation and agricultural development, defence and security cooperation were also added too.
When no country in the world was willing to invest even a billion dollars in Pakistan, Chinese help in the shape of CPEC was considered to be the best opportunity for the realisation of Pakistan’s dream of geoeconomics as enshrined in NSP 2022-2026. Successful operationalisation of CPEC is vital for economic growth, job creation, and infrastructure development of Pakistan. Pakistan has great potential to connect Eurasia with Africa, the Middle East and the world. CPEC can become a trade and energy corridor. When fully operationalised, it will integrate Pakistan in 2/3 of the global economy. In the present situation, Gwadar port is already experiencing increased sea trade.
While member states consider the BRI a significant advantage for their socio-economic development, the anti BRI & CPEC forces collude in a well-orchestrated disinformation campaign to demonise BRI as a debt trap, a Chinese bid to expand influence and challenge the contemporary US-led world order. China claims that the BRI is not a solo; it is instead a symphony that hinges on voluntary participation. The five principles of the UN Charter sit at its core. Sovereignty of the states, dialogue, consultation, rule of law and win-win cooperation steer it. In spite of this, politico-economic pressure, coercion, black mail, weaponisation of high end technology, chips war and misuse of international financial institutions ensue. The on-going wars complement efforts to counter Chinese rise.
Hence, the CPEC is also encountering terrorist attacks aimed at creating mistrust between the two friendly countries and scuttle its progress. RAW’s involvement in funding unrest in Pakistan and sabotaging CPEC is well established. Optimal operationalisation of the CPEC in the vitiated milieu of global competition and the region has become a real challenge. Despite these challenges we also need to review our part in the slower progress of the CPEC. It can be inferred that a major part of this fate changer project was establishment of special economic zones (SEZs) for industrialisation to usher prosperity by affording millions of jobs and alleviate poverty, enhance exports to mitigate the trade and budget deficit and become a strong debt free economy. Unfortunately, that has not happened despite the passage of 13 years.
The SEZs development has been delayed on various counts, but more so because of inertia, security issues, and perhaps hedging consequent to the demonisation campaign. Grappling with issues of inner cohesion and dwindling economy Pakistan can ill afford delays. For earlier operationalisation of SEZs, Government of Pakistan must consider outsourcing these to local entrepreneurs or including in development under CPEC.
Focus on internal cohesion, stabilising economy, socio-economic development, industrialisation, and technological advancement to reduce dependence on external powers is also considered essential. Providing a business friendly environment and continuity of policies will help attract investments from home and abroad. Pakistan must actively participate in regional and international forums to promote its own interests and build wide partnerships. Youth is a great capital, as well as a challenge, that has to be converted into an opportunity through education and grooming to become useful global citizens.
The whole effort is to be directed in to ensure comprehensive security having human security and economic prosperity as top priorities. Security of investments, investors, workers and assurance to repatriate profits, quick dispute resolution mechanisms enacting special laws and courts and continuity of policies must become part of national economic policy.
The US is still a preeminent military, technological and economic power having a greater sway over international politics and security. To navigate the complex geopolitical landscape, safeguard its own interests, and foster its place as an important middle power, Pakistan should continue to adopt a pragmatic, dynamic and flexible approach. Current non-aligned foreign policy of Pakistan is earning it much accolades, it must continue. Pakistan should manage all relationships ‘independent of the other’. Taking advantage of the current leverage available, Pakistan must try to alleviate US apprehensions on CPEC being an essential project for its economic development. Resolution of disputes with neighbours and relations woven around commonality of interest in areas like countering violent extremism, anti-narcotics, joint efforts in offsetting impacts of climate degradation, collaboration in energy projects, trade and economic cooperation capitalising on Pakistan’s location as a melting pot of connectivity could be of great help.
The writer is a retired Major General, former ambassador and holds a PhD on CPEC
All facts and information are the sole responsibility of the writer
A durable axis in an unsteady world
Dr Lali
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